The St. Jude Marathon in Memphis, TN, is five days away and this will be my first realistic shot at breaking 3 hours. I think it will be extremely close, as my training and recent shorter distance race times project me right at 3:00 to 3:02. It is a fairly flat course, the weather looks great, and I am in the best shape I've ever been for a marathon. If I avoid illness, I'll have a legit shot.
That said, it is unwise to underestimate or disrespect the distance that 26.2 miles commands. The teeth of this course comes in miles 15-19 during a slow ascent, but it's nothing drastic--it's more the timing. I'll be tired by that point and keeping pace will be tough. But, from 19 until the end, it's a slow descent, so that will be a nice mental boost if I can run at pace through mile 19.
If this race provides online tracking, I will post a link later this week.