Monday, May 12, 2008

Arithmecrats 3

I'm sure you know the old cliche about statistics, and I'm sure you know people who (or maybe YOU) have unfairly twisted statistics to support a point or bolster an argument. But, the numbers, as well as the "feel," of Democratic presidential nomination race has been pretty one-sided for quite awhile. And, we hit another milestone over the weekend.

In January, Clinton led Obama by 100+ Superdelegates. Exactly one month ago, Obama had whittled that lead to 25. According to the Associated Press, Obama passed Clinton over the weekend and now leads 277-271 in Superdelegates. Obama has secured 21 Supers to Clinton's 2 since last Tuesday's NC and IN primaries.

Obama now leads in pledged delegates, Superdelegates, primaries/caucuses won, and the Superdel support is swelling from a trickle to a small stream. Some of those are even defectors from Clinton's camp. She will win big in West Virginia and slightly less big in Kentucky (most likely), but Obama will have more total delegates when this is done. And, if the Superdelegates want to end this, he may even secure enough to claim the nomination outright.

How close is he? Well, he needs 2,025 total delegates to win the nomination. He currently sits at 1,867 (Clinton: 1,697)--that means he needs 158 more. Here is what remains.

West Virginia: 28 pledged delegates
Kentucky: 51
Oregon: 52
Montana: 16
South Dakota: 15
Puerto Rico: 55

That's 217 pledged delegates and, as of today, there are about 250 (+/-) uncommitted Superdelegates. So, here is the simple math.

Obama needs 158 of those those 467 total delegates (33%).
Clinton needs 328 of that same group (70%).

In the last month, the math has gone from "tough" to "this one stumped Matt Damon's character in Good Will Hunting." Clinton needs 1) a miracle, 2) an Obama gaffe of historic proportions, 3) to cheat, or 4) a good exit strategy.


a said...

Yes, those are the things she needs, but what she chose instead was race-baiting:

"Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans is weakening again."

This comment pushed me over the edge last week. I have officially switched camps from Hillary to Obama. I know I'm late to the party, but I had a hard time giving up the dream of a woman leading this country. But comments like the above made it a lot easier to jump off her train.

-Amanda M.

Cort said...

I don't think you can be "late to the party" in this race, since it seems to bend time and space as it slogs along. :)

I just hope that this can end somewhat gracefully for her...and for Obama and the fall ticket (whoever the VP candidate is).

Nedinsky said...

Whoa wait...

"Exit Strategy?"

Whats that?