I turned 32 years old yesterday. Overall, it seems like a fairly nondescript birthday. Who really goes all out for their 32nd birthday?
But, I did find myself philosophizing about aging and time more this year than normal. I am someone's dad now. I now have been driving longer than I had to wait to drive. I can distinctly remember when my parents were my age. I am getting older.
I recently read or heard (but I don't remember when or where) that the reason time "goes by faster" as we age is that each minute, day, year, decade, is a smaller percentage of our "time lived" as we get older. For example, when one is nine years old, and is waiting to be ten, that year is waiting for one tenth of your life to pass before you turn ten. But, this year, only 1/32nd of my "lived life" passed. For someone turning 80, it's 1/80th. Time does not speed up so much as that each increment is a smaller part of our total life experience.
The challenge is the same: appreciate the past and carry it with us, have eternal hope in the future, but live in the now and experience the moment, the life stage, the season, etc.
And, by the way, I had a great birthday.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Arithmecrats 4
Last night, Hillary Clinton won West Virginia by a huge margin, but it did not really make much of a difference in the math. Clinton will likely gain about 10 more pledged delegates in West Virginia than will Obama. For some perspective, Obama has picked up 27 Superdelegates in the last week. Clinton won a landslide margin, but there is not an avalanche of delegates in West Virginia.
So, she won big, but this is not a big win, mathematically speaking. She may be able to make some political hay out of this wide margin, but she is under growing pressure from the party to scale back the negative ads and not damage Obama further as he looks to be the nominee. Obama is already acting like the winner, being very gracious to her in his defeat, scooting off to Michigan and Florida to generate general election support, and talking about debates with John McCain.
The next potential milestone is next Tuesday when Obama could conceivably secure a majority of pledged delegates with a solid win in Oregon (Obama leads by 14 points in current polls) and a decent showing in Kentucky (Clinton leads and is expected to win handily, currently up 28 points).
So, she won big, but this is not a big win, mathematically speaking. She may be able to make some political hay out of this wide margin, but she is under growing pressure from the party to scale back the negative ads and not damage Obama further as he looks to be the nominee. Obama is already acting like the winner, being very gracious to her in his defeat, scooting off to Michigan and Florida to generate general election support, and talking about debates with John McCain.
The next potential milestone is next Tuesday when Obama could conceivably secure a majority of pledged delegates with a solid win in Oregon (Obama leads by 14 points in current polls) and a decent showing in Kentucky (Clinton leads and is expected to win handily, currently up 28 points).
Monday, May 12, 2008
Arithmecrats 3
I'm sure you know the old cliche about statistics, and I'm sure you know people who (or maybe YOU) have unfairly twisted statistics to support a point or bolster an argument. But, the numbers, as well as the "feel," of Democratic presidential nomination race has been pretty one-sided for quite awhile. And, we hit another milestone over the weekend.
In January, Clinton led Obama by 100+ Superdelegates. Exactly one month ago, Obama had whittled that lead to 25. According to the Associated Press, Obama passed Clinton over the weekend and now leads 277-271 in Superdelegates. Obama has secured 21 Supers to Clinton's 2 since last Tuesday's NC and IN primaries.
Obama now leads in pledged delegates, Superdelegates, primaries/caucuses won, and the Superdel support is swelling from a trickle to a small stream. Some of those are even defectors from Clinton's camp. She will win big in West Virginia and slightly less big in Kentucky (most likely), but Obama will have more total delegates when this is done. And, if the Superdelegates want to end this, he may even secure enough to claim the nomination outright.
How close is he? Well, he needs 2,025 total delegates to win the nomination. He currently sits at 1,867 (Clinton: 1,697)--that means he needs 158 more. Here is what remains.
West Virginia: 28 pledged delegates
Kentucky: 51
Oregon: 52
Montana: 16
South Dakota: 15
Puerto Rico: 55
That's 217 pledged delegates and, as of today, there are about 250 (+/-) uncommitted Superdelegates. So, here is the simple math.
Obama needs 158 of those those 467 total delegates (33%).
Clinton needs 328 of that same group (70%).
In the last month, the math has gone from "tough" to "this one stumped Matt Damon's character in Good Will Hunting." Clinton needs 1) a miracle, 2) an Obama gaffe of historic proportions, 3) to cheat, or 4) a good exit strategy.
In January, Clinton led Obama by 100+ Superdelegates. Exactly one month ago, Obama had whittled that lead to 25. According to the Associated Press, Obama passed Clinton over the weekend and now leads 277-271 in Superdelegates. Obama has secured 21 Supers to Clinton's 2 since last Tuesday's NC and IN primaries.
Obama now leads in pledged delegates, Superdelegates, primaries/caucuses won, and the Superdel support is swelling from a trickle to a small stream. Some of those are even defectors from Clinton's camp. She will win big in West Virginia and slightly less big in Kentucky (most likely), but Obama will have more total delegates when this is done. And, if the Superdelegates want to end this, he may even secure enough to claim the nomination outright.
How close is he? Well, he needs 2,025 total delegates to win the nomination. He currently sits at 1,867 (Clinton: 1,697)--that means he needs 158 more. Here is what remains.
West Virginia: 28 pledged delegates
Kentucky: 51
Oregon: 52
Montana: 16
South Dakota: 15
Puerto Rico: 55
That's 217 pledged delegates and, as of today, there are about 250 (+/-) uncommitted Superdelegates. So, here is the simple math.
Obama needs 158 of those those 467 total delegates (33%).
Clinton needs 328 of that same group (70%).
In the last month, the math has gone from "tough" to "this one stumped Matt Damon's character in Good Will Hunting." Clinton needs 1) a miracle, 2) an Obama gaffe of historic proportions, 3) to cheat, or 4) a good exit strategy.
Monday, May 5, 2008
Wrath of God
Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
People often think of "the wrath of God" in this Ghostbuster-ish way. Our church is currently working through Romans on Wednesday night, and I talked about Romans 1.18-32 gives us a slightly different perspective on God's wrath last Wednesday night.
Saint Paul tells us that the "wrath of God" is the other edge of God's two-edged sword: Righteousness and Wrath. So, in a sense, it is merely another way of "putting the world to rights," as N.T. Wright would put it. Saint Paul was writing primarily against idolatry in this section. People were fashioning gods from clay, wood, or metal and worshiping them. Absurd! Not only did they make the mistake of not worshiping God the Creator, but they even one-upped the common pantheistic mistake of worshiping His creation. They took that falsehood a step further by worshiping their OWN creations (images of humans, animals, birds, reptiles) that mimicked the Creation of God. This is TWO (three?) steps removed from the only source worthy of worship.
Romans 1 reminds us to acknowledge God in all things. "The righteous will live by faith." Those who abandon this are given over to their desires to be "free" of God or to be God (not that they will actually BE free or BE God, mind you). This results not in an elevation of their own status, but a degradation of their lives. Instead of pursuing the immortal God, they tout their own ways, human ways, of thinking. This leads to a false sense of intelligence and knowledge which leads away from God even as they believe that they are being enlightened.
Thus, the wrath of God is the other edge of that sword of righteousness. Both edges ensure that we understand who is the Creator and ruler of all. Wrath can be viewed as punishment, but it seems to be more of a way of setting things right.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
People often think of "the wrath of God" in this Ghostbuster-ish way. Our church is currently working through Romans on Wednesday night, and I talked about Romans 1.18-32 gives us a slightly different perspective on God's wrath last Wednesday night.
Saint Paul tells us that the "wrath of God" is the other edge of God's two-edged sword: Righteousness and Wrath. So, in a sense, it is merely another way of "putting the world to rights," as N.T. Wright would put it. Saint Paul was writing primarily against idolatry in this section. People were fashioning gods from clay, wood, or metal and worshiping them. Absurd! Not only did they make the mistake of not worshiping God the Creator, but they even one-upped the common pantheistic mistake of worshiping His creation. They took that falsehood a step further by worshiping their OWN creations (images of humans, animals, birds, reptiles) that mimicked the Creation of God. This is TWO (three?) steps removed from the only source worthy of worship.
Romans 1 reminds us to acknowledge God in all things. "The righteous will live by faith." Those who abandon this are given over to their desires to be "free" of God or to be God (not that they will actually BE free or BE God, mind you). This results not in an elevation of their own status, but a degradation of their lives. Instead of pursuing the immortal God, they tout their own ways, human ways, of thinking. This leads to a false sense of intelligence and knowledge which leads away from God even as they believe that they are being enlightened.
Thus, the wrath of God is the other edge of that sword of righteousness. Both edges ensure that we understand who is the Creator and ruler of all. Wrath can be viewed as punishment, but it seems to be more of a way of setting things right.
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