Thursday, February 7, 2008

Go Arithmecrats!

Your average Joe/Jane (or Republican who does not care about the Dem primary) might have glanced at Tuesday's results and said, "Well, Hillary is going to win again." After all, she took the big prizes in California and New York, and some papers even touted her "win." But, headlines and conventional wisdom do not nominate candidates. Delegates do. And, the Arithmecrats on remind us of this fact. In that count, it was a dead heat, with both sides claiming a small win on Tuesday.

Add to that that Obama has closed a MASSIVE poll gap on Clinton in the last two months and won 13 states to Clinton's 8 on Tuesday, and it seems to me that Obama has both math and momentum on his side. The more people see Obama, the more support he garners. Further, the next several races favor Obama (Maine, Nebraska, Washington state, Louisiana, and the three Potomac races). If he wins all five, that is going to help with momentum in upcoming delegate-rich states like Texas and Ohio, where Clinton currently leads. Clinton has focused on the big prizes, which makes sense. However, Obama is cleaning up in smaller states and has drawn even in national polling numbers. If that trend continues and he pulls off a win in Texas or Ohio, it's trouble for Clinton.

Also, he hauled in $32 million in support in January while Hillary Clinton just wrote a $5 million personal check to her campaign.

Hmmm. I thought only Mitt Romney was doing that? EDIT: And Romney dropped out soon after I typed this.


R. Justin said...

Romney's dropout should help Obama, in theory. Polls have shown that in McCain vs. Hillary contest, McCain wins, while in McCain vs. Obama, Obama wins.

Democrats (or moderates like me who think McCain's a bit of a whack job) are more likely, if they get wind of this, to vote for Obama, hoping he'll get the nomination and stop a McCain White House.

Brandon Andrew Miles said...

That's all it took Cort? Damn. You should have wrote that sooner, and maybe my sore old eyes would have been spares a few glimpses of his stupid greasy head.


Cort said...

I still fear Billary and, like Justin, McCain really weirds me out. But, the two jokers that would cause me to consider a move to Saskatchewan are out: 911Rudy911and Romney.

Luke Harlow said...

It will be interesting to see what happens down here in Texas. I don't see the Billarys offering a challenge until then.

By interesting, I mean I hope Obama rolls. Because as distinguished historian Jim Cobb has been writing about over on his blog (, it will get ugly if it goes to the convention. Ugly because I put nothing past the Billarys.

Cort said...

Agree, Luke. There will be utter mayhem if this thing goes the distance.

I am hoping for a thrashing by Obama today in the Potomac region and that this string of victories helps him win a couple of the big prizes in early March. If they continue this slugfest, it is going to end badly, I fear.